Six Bold Predictions for the 2026 IRONMAN World Championship

It’s here! It’s finally here!

Yes, the Super Bowl of triathlon is finally upon us. It’s the 2026 IRONMAN World Championship, and for the first time since 2022, everybody is all in Hawaii together. Though there’s still plenty of debate to be had as to whether or not IRONMAN got the qualification cycle right for age-groupers, there’s one thing that is definitely nice for those of us in the media: it’s great to have all of the professional titles up for grab in a single weekend. (Editor’s note: check with me on this on Saturday after trying to get all of the action written up on time.)

At any rate, like with any of these races, it’s time to unleash the take machine and see whether or not I’m halfway decent at predicting races. My track record is kinda like the line in Anchorman: 60% of the time, it works every time. In other words, I’ll probably get one of these really right, a bunch of these kinda right, and then be spectacularly, catastrophically wrong about one of them. As always, you can always tell me in the Reader Forum just how wrong I was.

Sam Laidlow’s Going to Get His Kona Win

Speaking very generally, there are three races that I really look at that predict Kona performance. The first is IRONMAN Texas, as it is probably the single most analogous race to Kona we have on the calendar. The swim in Texas is easier than Kona is, but the Hardy Toll Road loops on the bike and the sauna that can be the run are good indicators of being able to handle the heat and humidity on race day. The second is IRONMAN Lanzarote, due to the remote location and winds. And the last is Challenge Roth, the biggest stage in triathlon that isn’t in Hawaii.

It essentially means that if you put stock into those races, your betting money for the men should theoretically come down to Laidlow and Kristian Blummenfelt. And it feels like the entire field knows it, as it seems like this whole WhatsApp swim group is meant to try to make those guys have to fry themselves on the bike. The issue, of course, is that Laidlow already is a front-pack swimmer and a multi-time sub-4 hour full-distance bike split guy. And perhaps the scariest part of his performance in Roth this year was the fifth fastest of the day 2:36 marathon off a 3:55 bike. In case you need a reminder, Laidlow beat Blummenfelt to that win in Roth by a breezy 5:20.

Not to put any shade towards Blummenfelt. I think he’s going to be a threat for the win. You know the scene in Rocky II where Tony Evers is trying to get Apollo Creed not to fight Rocky again? “He’s all wrong for us baby. I saw you beat that man, like I never saw no man get beat before, and the man kept coming after you! We don’t need that kind of man in our life.” That’s Blummenfelt in a nutshell. He’s relentless. He will hunt down forever. He will most likely be behind Laidlow coming into T2, but it’s not like Blummenfelt is a slouch on the bike; he rode 3:57 in Texas to lead and was just a couple of minutes behind in Nice at 70.3 Worlds.

But, much like it was in Nice and Hayden Wilde, I think it’ll be Laidlow who gets to claim his first Kona crown, just ahead of Blummenfelt who can’t quite finish a comeback on the run. His consolation prize will be the IRONMAN Pro Series crown and the check there.

Marten Van Riel Will Podium

As mentioned, if you want to try to predict Kona success, you generally want to go back to the Woodlands and see who did well there. And there you’ll find none other than Mr. Van Riel.

Van Riel was second to Blummenfelt in Texas, a tick over 90 seconds behind after 140.6 miles of racing, with almost all of that on the marathon. It’s not unreasonable to think that he could lurk around all day and make some spectacular things happen. He also won IRONMAN Lake Placid in convincing fashion, with more than four minutes over everyone’s favorite medical student Matthew Marquardt. And it’s not like this is his debut IRONMAN World Championship; he was fourth last year in Nice.

Yes, I know. Nice isn’t Kona.

Still, he was the fastest non-Norwegian last year, beating out Laidlow and a healthy gap to the likes of Jonas Schomburg and Nick Thompson. Perhaps the only red flag would be his performance at the recent 70.3 Worlds — his 19th place finish there is Van Riel’s single worst race result since the 2024 Olympic Games, where he was 22nd. (That said, Van Riel was recovering from being sick a couple of weeks before and is now reported healthy and ready to go.)

His next race after that 22nd in the Olympics? A win over Laidlow at T100 Ibiza. I highly doubt he’ll have a second bad race in a row.

Top American Male: Trevor Foley

I am the first to admit that I’ve been pulling for Rudy Von Berg to keep showing up to World Championship races somewhat under the radar and then, once again, prove that he’s really, really good at triathlon. And I would not fault you at all for taking him as the top American, given that he’s consistently been the best finisher at these types of races over the last half decade. See, e.g., fifth place in Texas and really only losing times to the podium on the run.

But I’m putting my faith elsewhere this year for a top American, one who even the legendary Craig Alexander has said could be the American to break through and win this race. And that’s Trevor Foley. In 2024, Foley exited the swim in Kona a full eight minutes behind the leaders. He’d bridged himself up into a field of contenders and was on pace to join Laidlow as the only men to ride sub four hours in Kona. And then disaster struck, flipping over his handlebars just before transition, suffering multiple injuries.

It’s been a long journey back from there for Foley. After a winless 2025, he started 2026 off with a bang, winning IRONMAN New Zealand and the 70.3 North American regional championship in Happy Valley. Perhaps more importantly, his performances in both New Zealand and Sweden suggest some swim improvement. If he can manage to limit his losses in the swim, he’ll have a chance to dice his way through the field again. Fingers crossed he can keep the rubber side down this time.

For those wondering, here’s my order of fourth to fifteenth, the last of the paying positions:

• Gustav Iden
• Patrick Lange
• Foley
• Vincent Luis
• Marquardt
• Von Berg
• Antonio Benito Lopez
• Nick Thompson
• Jonas Schomburg
• Brock Hoel
• Kieran Lindars
• Kristian Høgenhaug

Charles-Barclay, Løvseth, Knibb. In That Order.

I am still recovering from having to eat my hat last year doubting Lucy Charles-Barclay at 70.3 Worlds. I refuse to make that mistake again.

Following an off-season surgery, the 2023 IRONMAN World Champion has pretty much followed the schedule that led her to a second place in Hawaii in 2022 and her win the following year; in other words, she has kept a much lower profile than her big season from 2025. Charles-Barclay won in Lanzarote and came second at Challenge Roth to Alanis Siffert. That’s it. That’s the year. Charles-Barclay said following Roth that she had stuck to her own pace throughout the day and “felt pretty strong,” which seems ominous for the field.

Much like last year, it feels like Charles-Barclay will lead the swim, get away a bit, and then at some point Taylor Knibb will make her way to the front of the race. The question in my mind is whether or not Knibb will also have Løvseth in tow. Going back to IRONMAN Texas this year, it was Løvseth, not Knibb, who had the fastest ride of the day. And then it was Løvseth who handled conditions best and had a sub-2:50 marathon, over four minutes faster than the next fastest Knibb.

You could put these three names in a jar, shake them up, put them in any order, and I would be convinced that’s the podium for this year’s race. Of them, I think Knibb is the least likely to take the win / most likely to implode. (Of course, immediately go put a bet on Knibb because that’s how this works.) But I think all three make it to the finish this year, and that’s the order I’m sticking with.

Julie Derron is Most Likely to Ruin Everything I Wrote Above

The 2024 Olympic silver medalist and currently the leader in the T100 standings, Derron punched her ticket to Kona with a win at IRONMAN Switzerland back in July. She’s finished no worse than second in all of her performances this year. The last time she finished a race off the podium was at T100 London last August. Heck, her worst performance at an IRONMAN is second, and to find that result you have to go back to 2022.

In fewer words: she’s dangerous.

Tradition dictates that you don’t win in your debut here. Of course, tell that to Løvseth or the name we’ll discuss next. The question mark for Derron’s chances boil down to where she comes out in the swim and how she handles the specific conditions of Kona (which looks like it will rain at some point and then turn into a full out sauna during the run on Saturday). Her iron distance swims put her on par, or behind, Løvseth and having to chase Charles-Barclay and Knibb. The bike isn’t in question, and Derron consistently has run 2:51-2:52 off the bike.

I think she’ll be right up in the mix until the Energy Lab, fade slightly, and finish fourth. But that’s also based on me hoping I get my podium picks right.

Two Names That Won’t Be as High as You Think: Sodaro and Matthews

The 2022 IRONMAN World Champion wasn’t even included in the pre-race press conference. As Kelly O’Mara has reported, Chelsea Sodaro was set to pull a The Last Dance “and I took that personally.” Unfortunately we’ve just learned that Sodaro won’t be racing – she’s come down with the flu. I would have had Sodaro around sixth place; it is a mistake to underestimate her in these kinds of situations, and she’s got a solid Kona track record, even if she had a spectacular late race meltdown in Lake Placid earlier this summer.

I think Laura Philipp is likely the fifth place finisher here, and ahead of where I think Kat Matthews will wind up being. Even prior to championship season, this year has not been up to Matthews’ remarkable consistency over the past two seasons. It’s still hard to call it a bad year — it’s just how stellar Matthews was in 2024 and 2025. No, the real issue is the one Matthews cited back in Nice; she’s carrying some type of lingering issue. I think those things have a nasty habit of recurring and showing up at the worst possible moment. I hope she proves me dead wrong, but…I think a top 10 is a solid expected result.

In no particular order, other women I think are taking home paychecks:

• Sanchez
• Hannah Berry
• Lisa Perterer
• Findlay
• Sara Svensk
• Katrine Christensen
• Lotte Wilms
• Leonie Konczalla
• Tamara Jewett

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