After Nice and Kona Some Thought the IRONMAN Pro Series was Settled. Not Quite.
Created as IRONMAN’s answer to the question asked by the PTO’s T100 Triathlon World Tour, the IRONMAN Pro Series has been an unmitigated success. Pros were clamoring to enter the designated pro races to the point where waiting lists became the norm at the early season events. On top of that, some of the biggest names in the sport chose to focus on the IRONMAN series rather than sign a T100 contract, including this year’s Kona champ Patrick Lange (GER) and one of the most popular pros in the sport, Canadian Lionel Sanders. British star Kat Matthews chose to both sign a T100 contract and go after the Pro Series title.
Pro Series Standings
With two races left – IRONMAN 70.3 Western Australia and the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship in Taupo – Lange and Jackie Hering (USA) sit at the top of the standings. Lange won’t be in Taupo, and it looks like that could be a costly decision. Hering will be in Taupo, but despite being in the lead, it’s going to be really hard for her to take the overall win. After her runner-up finish in Nice, Matthews appears to have the best shot for the overall title.
Points for the Pro Series are based on a total of five eligible races. To push a full-distance race emphasis, three of those can be IRONMAN races, with the final two being 70.3 events. IRONMAN races are worth 5,000 points for the win, with the points decreasing by one for every second an athlete finishes behind the winner. IRONMAN 70.3 races are worth half that. The world championship races are worth a bit more – 6,000 points for Kona and Nice, 3,000 points for Taupo.
With $1.3 million of bonus money on the line, making the trip down under will definitely be worth the effort. Winning the series earns $200,000, with second taking $130,00 and third $85,000. (You can see the full break down here.)
You can see the points standings heading into the final few races here.
Lange’s to lose?
At the press conference after winning in Kona, Lange told us that he wasn’t going to be heading to Taupo in December because it already looked like he’d nailed the Pro Series title. (Turns out he also hadn’t qualified for the 70.3 worlds, so in theory his only chance to up his points total would have been to head to IRONMAN 70.3 Western Australia, but the bottom line is he wasn’t heading down under.)
In fact, he hasn’t nailed the Pro Series title. Sure, it doesn’t look like American Matt Hanson, who is currently second in the standings, could earn enough points even with a win in Taupo to move ahead. It’s also a long-shot for South African Bradley Weiss, who currently sits third. A win in Taupo would be enough to put him in front. That’s a tough ask for a guy who finished 16th at 70.3 Zell am See-Kaprun and seventh at 70.3 Alcudia-Mallorca.
There are three guys who have a huge opportunity to move to the top of the standings, though. First up is American Matthew Marquardt, who somehow balances med school and pro racing. He’ll be taking time from his studies at Ohio State to take a shot at the IRONMAN Pro Series title. He’s only done one 70.3 race to go along with his three IRONMAN finishes (third in Texas, second in Lake Placid and 15th in Kona), so if he can muster up 2,041 points in Taupo he’d gain enough points to become the Pro Series champ.
Italy’s Gregory Barnaby is in almost as good a position – he’s only 23 points behind Marquardt and also only has one 70.3 race on his list for 2024. Dane Kristian Haugenhaug currently trails Barnaby by 268 points in the standings and also has a race in hand. Here’s the other interesting thing about those two – they’ll both be heading to Ironman 70.3 Western Australia next week and then to Taupo, giving them two shots at earning enough points to move to the top of the IRONMAN Pro Series.
Matthews in the Driver’s Seat
Hering sits at the top of the standings with 18,093 points. Those come from three IRONMAN events (win in Hamburg, second in Lake Placid and ninth in Kona) and two 70.3 races – second in Chattanooga and third in St. George. The problem for Hering is that Matthews is just a few hundred points behind and only has four counting races – second in Nice, wins in Texas and Vitoria-Gasteiz and a second at 70.3 Tallinn. So, pretty much any finish that’s within roughly 45 minutes of the winner in Taupo will get Matthews the title.
Hering can make that a bit more tough with a win in Taupo – that would negate her St. George score and add about 700 points to her total. Matthews would still only need to finish within 30 mins of the winner to take the Pro Series.
It still means that it will come down to one race, which is why I was surprised not to see Matthews’ name on the start list for IRONMAN 70.3 Western Australia. A decent finish there would put her in front of the Pro Series, taking the pressure of having to finish in Taupo. That said, if you’re gunning after the world championship and you’ve raced as much as Matthews has this year, resting up before the worlds makes a lot of sense.
Maja Stage Nielsen, who currently sits third in the Pro Series Standings, is on the start list for 70.3 Western Australia. Moving up to first is very much a long shot for the Dane – if she wins in Busselton and Taupo, she’d improve her score by about 1,500 points, which would put her close to Hering’s total. A couple of good races, though, could ensure she stays ahead of American Danielle Lewis, who is only 177 points behind her.
The Netherlands’ Lotte Wilms heads to 70.3 Western Australia with two races in hand for her points total – she hasn’t done a 70.3 race this year. Wins in Taupo and Western Australia would give her enough points to move ahead of Hering, but probably not enough to top Matthews if she has even a decent race at the worlds. Kiwi Hannah Berry also hasn’t done a 70.3 race this year, so she’s heading to Busselton and Taupo with the podium of the IRONMAN Pro Series in mind.
Pro Series Finale
All of which sets up more than a little bit of excitement leading into the final few races of the IRONMAN Pro Series. By only increasing the points values for the world championship events by 1,000 (IRONMAN) and 500 (70.3) points, IRONMAN has ensured that there will be lots to race for right up to the final race of the season. It means that the Kona and Nice champions aren’t likely to be crowned IRONMAN Pro Series champ, but maybe that’s not a bad thing.
'Fraid not that simple (appreciate writing an article like this is fraught with difficulty).
That many points will merely get Marquardt equal with Lange.
To become the IM Pro Series ‘champ’ Marquardt has to do at least that (two seconds less than 16 minutes off the leader: Wilde/Bogen/Bergere/Geens or whoever)
AND
be ahead of or less than 23 seconds behind Barnaby (0 secs if Barnaby wins 70.3WA)
AND
be ahead of or less than 4 minutes 51 seconds behind Hoegenhaug (1:55 if Hoegenhaug wins 70.3WA)
With Barnaby and Hoegenhaug both racing Busso:
Start list:
By the way, Barnaby will overtake Lange in Busso if he finishes less than 7:15 behind the winner.
IRONMAN have not published any tie break mechanism, as far as I know.
Will be all to play for when the three toe the line in front of the Yacht Club 25 days hence.
HTH
Bradley Weiss cannot win Taupo as he is not qualified and is not on the starting list for Busso. does seem a bit unprofessional not to know it (or just check the IM qualified athletes list)
Welcome to ST Kevin.
As long as nothing is wrong with Matthew, being within 16 minutes of the winner should be an easy putt to the hole of winning the championship. I mean this is the guy that often gets off the bike first in most of his races and then runs super competitively afterwards. Imagine if he takes winning the race out of his equation and just paces to be within 10 minutes of the leader, should be cakewalk for him on his day without issues…
Of course there are always issues to be had, but he seems like a really consistent racer and virtually always gets himself in the lead swim and bike groups. I said this when Ryan wrote the first article handicapping the series, seems like admin has taken a different look at it this time around… (-;
@monty you have quoted only the first element of three, ALL of which need to be satisfied (see the AND . . . ANDs). I have zero doubt Marquardt can finish within 16, but that’s only to overtake Lange.
His far more pressing fellow contenders for the IM Pro Series are Barnaby and Hoegenhaug, aren’t they? And, in Taupo, beating them (or being behind them by not much) requires him to have ‘everything right’ rather than “nothing wrong”.
Your “16 minute putt” for par will be beaten by either of the others who have a 14-15 minute (longer) putt for a birdie.
Marquardt cannot “pace to be within 10 mins of the leader”: he has to get out there as he’ll lose shedloads on the run to the top guys (I listed ^) and also get chased down (or not) by either Barnaby or Hoegenhaug or both. Often Marquardt (arguably) overbikes and then goes out from T2 way above the pace he can sustain, and falters with a few miles to go. I realise Kona was not MM’s best race but Barnaby took 11 minutes out of him on the run and Hoegenhaug took 4.
A potentially enthralling contest within the main dance: the IM70.3 World Championships. I hope IM realise this race within a race and covers it (coloured caps for all three, and moto camera coverage).
https://stats.protriathletes.org/head-to-head/matthew-marquardt/gregory-barnaby
i am sorry that i sounded so harsh and did not realize that was Kevin’s first assignement. It’s just that i hate to read articles where i feel that i know more than the people writing it. To be honest, very few people/journalists really understand the Pro Series ranking as it is hard to compare people who have not raced the same number of races and . I keep my own Excell sheet which makes it easier to track. IM commentators are so bad that they seemed to have no idea what they were talking about…
Was a bit harsh so kudos for the mea culpa.
Glad to hear spreadsheets are alive and well.
If you find errors in my analysis, please say.
Early in the IM Pro Series process, I found that keeping a track of how many points (seconds behind) athletes had LOST (from max) was a good indicator of the order that they had the potential to finish.
After two IMs (in the wait for IMWC) and best 70.3 (by end August) for example:
At this stage Hanson is top of the table but only on numbers iyswim.
So then Barnaby and Hoegenhaug pull right up to Marquardt though the latter’s poor Kona and their good ones.
Also points up Lange’s deficit which he massively reduced by putting so much time into everyone at Kona. However his resurgence is hampered by a second poor 70.3 which he chose not to improve in Busso.
Scrolling down on this main ‘Pro’ page tells you who is ‘Q’ for which of the forthcoming Ironman championships:
https://www.ironman.com/pro-athletes
Far less fun for the women, though. I thought (as @ironmandad) that Matthews would be sensible to jog Busselton (to mitigate risk) and then go on to Taupo. But she was #2 in Lahti so will be racing ftw in Taupo and a Perth stopover would disrupt preparation.
https://proseries.ironman.com/standings
yes I get he has to also beat two others as well as the time gap, but I highlight him as he is my pick to win that 3 up race that will happen well back of the leaders for the big$$$$. And you are correct that their Kona run splits are hopeless in trying to handicap this particular race, completely different scenarios. best to use in season racing which Matthew has done very well at and been very consistent.
I just hope the camera crew and announcers realize this and we get some coverage there towards the middle of the pro field to be able to follow along on this race within a race…
Come write for us…
Doesn’t that sound a little too optimistic/kind towards IM?
It’s good IM has done all this in response to the T100 series. More money for the pros. But let’s be serious, the top athletes are doing T100 if they can, with the exception of Lange.
The really competitive fields this past year were in T100 races, with the exception of Kona. Next year the gap will be even bigger with more “professional pros” joining middle distance. T100 is where the money is, and where the talents are.
IM has work to do if they want to remain relevant. Except if T100 collapses, then they’ll get their monopoly back on the pro side, and can go back to paying pennies.
I really don’t think so. I don’t think you can call all of the T100 fields “really competitive” when you saw a fair amount of struggle to get contracted athletes to the full allotment of obligatory races.
And I don’t think we can know anything about what T100 2025 will be until the contracted athletes are announced, as well as what the requirements of those contracts are.
IM is plenty relevant. It’s the largest mass participant event production company in the world.
The truth is this: both had good professional races. Both broadcasts still leave plenty to be desired. Only one of them has a proven business model to date.
Not to mention there seemed to be a fair amount of not caring about where they placed once they went outside the top 10 and the prize package (for the race) was the same across the board. It seems there’s just a lot of gamesmanship around the compensation, next race on the calendar, points, etc. etc. The pro t100 athletes aren’t giving us to the finish perhaps like the points breakdown in Ironman incentivizes.
Being on the business side of compensation structures in the real world, it’s a little humorous to see some of the same thing playing out with the T100 with all their contracts, etc.
To gauge competitiveness let’s look at both top 10s. How many in the IM M and F ones (although season is not over) would make it to the T100 top 10s? And vice versa. Wouldn’t you agree T100 has the clear edge?
That said, 100% agree that today IM has a strong business model, and the T100 one has everything to prove. The T100 racing requirements are a challenge for pros. Of course IM is plenty relevant today.
My comment about relevance was looking ahead. If T100 manages to get AGers to participate, while retaining the best pros, IM will have to do more than hanging on to the power of the brand, which I feel they have been doing for a while now.
In the end it’s just unfortunate the two organizations haven’t found a way to work together. Maybe someone on this forum knows why.
Because T100 investors need money from something the race offers and IM has no reason to give that up. At first it was alleged to be T100 would market to sponsors who want to be associated with professional triathlon.
IM gets paid by those sponsors too and isn’t going to hand their sponsor revenue over to someone else.
Now T100 wants money from age groupers. IM wants that money too.
There’s nothing T100 is doing that IM couldn’t flip a few switches and duplicate tomorrow if there was enough money on the horizon from sponsors to justify doing so.
What would be interesting is if T100 paid IM to run a pro T100 race the day before at a non pro IM race. IM wouldn’t be giving anything up, it would be making more money from their fixed setup costs, and all their age groupers would have some entertainment to watch.
The problem is at this point it’s clear that T100 wants the age group revenue too.
Are you sure he didn’t talk about this with the Australia race not taupo. I pretty sure he didn’t qualify for taupo !
In his bob Babbitt interview pre race he says
What’s next.
Depending how I do here in kona I may or may not go to Australia, ( he didn’t mention taupo ) which was because he didn’t get a slot . 17 th and 17 th in his 70.3