October is a big news month on the sport of triathlon. First comes Interbike, then the Hawaiian Ironman. Though October will always produce drama, it is rare that either event produces surprises.

A cyclist won the Ironman. This is not new. It happens all the time. But not in the men’s race. Normann Stadler won the race from the front on the bike, and I can't remember that happening since 1981, when John Howard did it.

Also noteworthy: Women find the going a little tougher both on the bike and in the swim without the age-group men around. This is no slam against the women. It allows those who are good to exhibit their strengths to a greater degree. Except, that is, when they’re so good that they have the pro men to key off of. This was the case at least during the swim. Any woman who swims better than 55 minutes in Kona will have a pro man's feet in front of her. If one is both a good swimmer and a strong rider, as Nina Kraft is, the possibility exists for a bit of help both during the swim and bike. I don’t imply cheating, but the sort of legal help available for any man or woman under the rules. Allowing the pros a separate start is a good first step. Splitting the pro men and women by 5 minutes would complete the job.

Certain males also find a separate pro start a bit difficult. Prior to this year there grew to be one single unending line of swimmers from the 52-minute point on. This, because age group men swim quite fast nowadays. A 54-minute pro became a 52-minute pro just by having age-group feet to follow. Now, there gaps.

Back to the age-group men's effect on the pro women’s race. Let us compare some times. Normann Stadler had an overcoming bike ride, certainly a course breaker under the right conditions, one would think. I suggest this because of the lead he had off the bike. If one assumes this ride was worth, say, 4:22 in a perfect year (best times of 4:27 and 4:24 were recorded in 1993 or 1996 respectively), then the course was 15 minutes slow this year. Adjusting for the relative speed difference of men and women in Kona, (the best pro men ride about 10% faster than the best pro women) Nina Kraft’s overcoming ride of 5:24 would translate to about a 4:51 on a very good day, which seems just about right.

However, the other women don’t fare as well. Certainly on a favorable day, such as 1993 when a gaggle of women rode right around or just a tick over 5 hours, the other women in this year’s race would’ve been in that neighborhood. However, many of the better women in the field rode about 10 minutes slower. I don’t believe that the women of today are that much slower on the bike than those of a decade ago. The only other explanation is that riding with age-group men, even when done legally, might be worth 10 minutes, more or less.

Of couse, there is another possibility. The women of today exhibit tactics ascribed to many of the best pro men of today: Maybe Lisa Bentley, Heather Fuhr and Lori Bowden, to name three, have such overcoming run talent they aren’t willing to threaten their run legs by riding their bikes on the rivet. There is evidence for this. They routinely run on or close to three hours in Kona, something previously never accomplished, even by the great Paula Newby-Fraser, whose splits ranged from 3:04 to 3:15 during her peak years.

We probably won’t know all this for sure until we have another really good weather year. That hasn’t happened in the 8 most recent installments of the Kona race.

Simon Lessing was the favorite going in. Historians of this race know that this was folly. Only Luc Van Lierde mastered this race his first time out. Mark Allen won it seven times, but it took him from 1982 to 1989 to get his first win. Chris McCormack is an example of an athlete who can win anywhere but in Kona. Nothing compares to this event.

It does not help when the lessons of Kona are not studied. You do not win this race from the rear—the rear of the saddle, that is. Conquering Kona requires a special degree of learned efficiency during the bike ride. Normann Stadler is a prime example. If you’re going to ride hard, and fast, and yet conserve at the same time, there is a a style and a tactic that the best riders overwhelmingly tend to utilize. It is my humble opinion that Chris, Simon and Björn have not yet internalized this.

Normann Stadler has recasted the race. He succeeded in doing what Thomas Hellriegel almost pulled off in 1996—winning with a mortal run split. Peter Reid is the most likely sub-2:50 runner to be able to ride with Normann. Did Stadler redefine the front pack? That’s Reid’s decision to make. Next year, barring catastrophe or unforeseen events, Reid will again be the favorite in Kona (as he was this year among right-thinkers). He’ll still control and lead the front pack. Reid will decide whether, and to what degree, Stadler‘s gravitational pull will influence his training and strategy.

A lot of ITU racers didn’t make their Olympic teams. Craig Walton and Simon Lessing are two among them, as is Kathleen Smet for the women. When one considers the ITU racers that have jumped to the world of Ironman, including of course, Chris McCormack, it’s at least a mild surprise that their impact at Kona is only negligible. Only Greg Welch and Karen Smyers, arguably of a former generation of ITU racers, have stamped their marks on the Hawaiian Ironman. One might’ve expected a reasonably high degree of defection of ITU racers to the Ironman ranks now that another Olympic quad is history. This Kona race adds an element of question, however, to the success even the most talented of ITU racers would have in this format, at this distance, for this race. Clearly, results achieved at other Ironman events are just not indicative of Kona success.